U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican challenger Joe Kent are neck and neck among nearly 650 likely voters who live in the district, a recent poll from the Northwest Progressive Institute found.

“It is a textbook definition of a tight race that could come down to a recount,” said Andrew Villeneuve, the executive director of the left-leaning nonprofit. NPI was among the few pollsters to ascribe a fighting chance to Gluesenkamp Perez’s longshot 2022 campaign, which she eventually won.

Mark Stephan, an associate professor of political science at the Vancouver campus of Washington State University, said that incumbents are most vulnerable during their first reelection campaign.

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